Brazil is the drums of war hit. The Forex diversity that is. Accordingly to the Finance Ministers "we are an international currency war, a general weakening of the currency in the middle." "This threatens us because it takes our competitiveness." According to own statements, Brazil will sit on the sidelines of this war. Rather it is for your currency, the real fight.
Brazil's concerns are perhaps justified since the Brazilian real strong, a 2-year high risen, and amazing value more than before the collapse which is Lehman Brothers and the ignition of the global financial crisis. (If anything, this shows how far we have come upon the return to stability).According to Goldman Sachs is the real now most overrated main currency in the Welt.Dies confirmed the Economist's Big Mac index, which shows that in terms of PPP (purchasing power parity) Brazil now the third country in the world behind only Norway and Switzerland.
It is not difficult to understand why the real is growing. His benchmark Selic rate is 10.75% in Government, so that one nor increased 12%. After inflation, this is the highest among the major currencies. Its economy is booming; projected GDP in 2010 to 10%. Consequently, tributaries have returned cash flow levels pre-credit crisis: "Net foreign exchange inflows totaled $ 11.14 billion in the period September 1 17 to 2.11 billion $ in the first ten days of the month according to the data released Tuesday by Central Bank of the country."The tributaries have driven by a 70-billion dollar shares, the issuance of PetroBras, the (former) State-owned oil company. "It is a record sum, and 3 the agricultural times Bank greater than the eye-popping $ 23 billion of China raised only a few months ago.""If the Petrobras deal had never happened, the actual somewhere around 1.75 per dollar, trade could be" compared to 1.70 today. With other companies, noise with fremd-to follow and equity still offered cash probably casting.
As I said at the beginning of this post, the Bank of Brazil has several tools petto. It has already started, "surprise daily auctions to purchase excess dollars in the spot market" (in the 2006 suspended), in which investors can trade dollars for Brazilian government debt. "" It beats also reverse currency swaps that would serve a similar purpose."""The order is to buy, buy, buy", ", said a government source. It has purchased in the month of September alone almost $ 1 billion in foreign currency and is committed to provide its 10 billion dollar sovereign investment funds if necessary. Finally there is the tax rate (currently 2%) on all foreign capital inflows conversation of raise, but no real schedule for such a step is.
Oh, while keeping the Government of Brazil in its intentions the real is certainly sincere, lacking the necessary Kleingeld.Die was 1 billion dollar intervention in September by the 20 + billions of dollars spent by the Bank of Japan on a day to hold Yen dwarfed.Even controlling for the differences in the size of their respective economies, Brazil still thoroughly outspent was.His $ 10 billion investment pales compared to the ~ $ 1 trillion foreign exchange reserves of Japan.Kurz said Brazil would be wise to avoid full commitment in currency war.
Also the real can better to strength the weakness in the US dollar and other currencies of G4 werden.In seen Brazil lean purchases of US dollar on the spot market related growth probably not much to the gradual exodus of cash from safe havens again currencies entgegenzuwirken.vielleicht it may take solace in the fact that so overrated real is that it seems, have no place to go, but down.
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